Caught between droughts and floods: living with the climate crisis

Kevin Mackey has been working in Somalia for the last 14 years. During his work in Mogadishu as programme coordinator for the international NGO World Vision he often travels in an armoured vehicle with up to six guards. Bombings on hotels and conference centres in Somalia's capital are not uncommon. But Mackey is no longer easily rattled, not even by the fact that the country has officially been without a government ever since President Mohamed Abdullahi Mohamed, nicknamed Farmajo, refused to step down and the scheduled elections were simply not held.

What does trouble Mackey, however, is that most regions on a map of Somalia are coloured orange. The colour coding indicates the level of food insecurity. Orange is phase 3 on a scale of 5 and indicates 'crisis', two stages prior to 'famine'. "We are headed for a disaster if we don't act soon and provide more humanitarian aid," says a concerned Mackey.

Somalia has been in political turmoil for the last 30 years. After the dictator Siad Barre was overthrown, the country lapsed into a bloody civil war. Domestic political conflicts and clashes between the central government and al-Shabaab, a militant Islamic militia that controls large swathes of southern Somalia, continue to this day. In 2020, the COVID-19 pandemic further worsened the situation, hitting the economy of this isolated country at the Horn of Africa especially hard.

The other significant stress factors for the more than 15 million Somalis are weather and climate. Since 1990, the country has experienced over 30 climate-related hazards including 12 droughts and 19 floods of varying intensity: three times as many as in the period from 1970 to 1990. When Kevin Mackey scans the map in April, the onset of another drought seems imminent. Rainfall between October and December was below average and projections for the second rainy season between April and June are bleak.

Mackey has seen first-hand the extent of human suffering caused by the conjunction of war, absence of government and climate shocks. "When I came to Somalia in 2008, the situation was already grim, and it got much worse with the drought and famine in 2011." At the time, 260,000 people died of undernourishment, half of them children below the age of five. International humanitarian aid arrived too late and the raging conflict prevented it from reaching the most affected rural communities. This prompted several NGOs to come together and launch a long-term project bridging the humanitarian aid and development cooperation nexus. The aim of the Somali Resilience Programme (SomReP) continues to be to strengthen the resilience of the rural population to climate shocks. "When a farmer becomes desperate enough to sell his pick and hoe and move to the city it is very difficult – and expensive – to get him back later," says Mackey, who heads the programme locally.  

An important SomReP component is early warning. Weather and climate data for Somalia collected by the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO) are fed into a national early warning system that predicts droughts, floods and heatwaves. By itself, however, this is not enough: "Ultimately, it is the people living in each of the regions who cultivate their land," says Mackey. "They must be able to gainfully use this data." SomReP helped establish 100 early warning committees across the country for this purpose. Their members are trained to correctly interpret the climate and weather data they receive from regional authorities and develop adaptation strategies on this basis.

Farmers know the weather and climate in their region best, and this knowledge is also incorporated in emergency scenarios. "We are seeing that village communities now respond more quickly and know what needs to be done during impending storms or droughts," says Mackey. For instance, before the onset of heavy rains they clear gutters and dig channels to allow the water to drain off from the villages and fields.

Going by the latest available climate data for Somalia from the year 2013, average temperatures have already risen by 1.5°C compared to pre-industrial levels. If radical measures are not taken globally, these temperatures could rise by 4.3°C by the end of the century. The impacts are already being felt: long spells without rain are leading to droughts and parched soils. These are often followed by heavier than usual rains resulting in floods, partly because the dry soil is no longer able to absorb water.

Community practices further aggravate the climate crisis. Forests have been cleared on a large scale in recent years to produce charcoal, which is used for cooking as there are no alternatives, or for lucrative exports to Kenya. Soils without a protective cover of vegetation erode and become barren. Over 70% of Somalia's population is dependent on agriculture for a living or are nomadic or semi-nomadic pastoralists. In the past years, millions of them have lost their land or their livestock – effectively their source of livelihood. The drought of 2016-17 alone caused the death of up to 60% of herds in severely affected regions. As a result, people migrated to the cities or joined al-Shabaab for lack of any other prospects. Almost three million Somalis are refugees in their own country today. The Islamic militia is able to regularly recruit new soldiers from the makeshift camps located on the outskirts of cities.

A key element of SomReP is enhancing resilience against the vagaries of weather. 165 farmer field schools for livestock farming and over 600 schools for agriculture have been established across the country since 2013. These schools teach pastoralists how to ensure that their animals remain healthy and to plan ahead for storing fodder. Women farmers learn how to use fertiliser for improving yields, which maize, sorghum and bean varieties need less water and are consequently better suited for cultivation, or how mixed cropping lessens the risk of total crop failure. Information about market mechanisms is also imparted, enabling farmers to obtain better prices.

The field schools additionally function as hubs for vaccinating animals – mainly goats, camels and sheep – against diseases to keep herds healthy. About 1,400 vets were trained under the programme for this purpose. Livestock farming is a mainstay of Somalia's economy, which is why Kevin Mackey and his team are currently working on developing an index-based livestock insurance. The insurance will be linked to climate and weather forecasts so that when there is an imminent crisis, payouts are made at an early stage to enable the affected persons to buy medicines, food and water for their livestock.

Mackey plans to get international donors, the government and the private sector on board for the funding. He is convinced that the insurance scheme will benefit all. He draws a comparison with the Cash for Work (CFW) programmes forming part of humanitarian aid, which provide assistance to livestock farmers who have lost their animals due to a climate shock event. The farmers work, for example, to rehabilitate agricultural land or build drinking water infrastructure and can use the wages to buy new animals.

"CFW costs us USD 84 per person per month," says Mackey. "Livestock insurance, on the other hand, costs just USD 22 a year going by experiences in other countries, so it would be quite economical." With Swiss funding, a position in the ministry of livestock has already been created for taking the project forward at the administrative level. World Vision is simultaneously working with the Somali Response Innovation Lab (see box) to bring in the private sector and to develop prototypes of a functional system.

But how will women farmers and semi-nomads in the remote regions of Somaliland or Puntland register for this type of insurance, let alone receive insurance payouts in time before a drought? "Via their smartphone," says Mackey. "Practically everyone in Somalia has one and already uses mobile money for their payments."

SomReP has also helped to establish village savings and loan associations (VSLAs), whose members can take up loans, for example to open a small shop or buy livestock. The focus is on women and young people, over 60% of whom are currently unemployed. These village associations, of which there are now 240, also serve as important meeting places and social networks. Women get together to organise themselves and become more financially independent and self-confident. This also encourages them to engage with other interest groups. "I am actually quite optimistic about the future development of Somalia," says Mackey. A lot has been achieved over the past years and the ability to respond to climate shocks has improved.

However, the orange spots on the map continue to be a source of concern in the near future. While SomReP includes programme components for providing short-term humanitarian aid during minor crises, the current drought and the likelihood of a catastrophic famine exceed the financial scope of the programme. The United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA) announced at the end of April that just 15% of the anticipated USD 1.09 billion needed for providing humanitarian assistance in Somalia have so far been made available by international donors. Food rations for 400,000 Somalis have already been cut by 50% due to the lack of funds. One million children are acutely or severely undernourished; 50,000 could die if help is not extended soon. "If the international community does not intervene we will lose a lot of the resilience that we have managed to build up in the past years," says Mackey.

However, the orange spots on the map continue to be a source of concern in the near future. While SomReP includes programme components for providing short-term humanitarian aid during minor crises, the current drought and the likelihood of a catastrophic famine exceed the financial scope of the programme. The United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA) announced at the end of April that just 15% of the anticipated USD 1.09 billion needed for providing humanitarian assistance in Somalia have so far been made available by international donors. Food rations for 400,000 Somalis have already been cut by 50% due to the lack of funds. One million children are acutely or severely undernourished; 50,000 could die if help is not extended soon. "If the international community does not intervene we will lose a lot of the resilience that we have managed to build up in the past years," says Mackey.