"It's less about the available volume of water and more about the timing of how it's shared"

The commission was primarily founded thanks to personal relations between the ministers for water resources at that time – relations which remain hugely important for water management today. By setting up of the commission when they did, the ministers sent out an important signal that they were willing to take responsibility for the entire region. They went ahead and established the commission without a government mandate; that was very forward-looking of them. And it shows how much decision-making power these ministries had back then.

Following the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991, the ministries responsible for water resource management were restructured and broken up, thus losing some of their influence and budget. A few countries now no longer actually have their own ministry for water: this area often falls within the remit of other ministries, such as those for the environment or energy. A fact that also weakens ministers' mandates in negotiations between countries.

Yes, it's paradoxical. There's a lot of talk about how important water is for the economy, development and security in the region. But, at the national level, staff of the ministries for water resources are often treated simply as servants. When water issues should really be included in every important decision governments take. And there is a desperate need for authorities that are capable of implementing international decisions more effectively at the national level.

The commission meets four times a year to discuss issues relating to transboundary water resource management. It approves the actual water allocation limits twice a year. These are based on the applications made by the individual states, previously established principles and the current hydrological situation.

The available amount of agricultural land that can potentially be irrigated – a yardstick that dates back to the Soviet era. That's also the reason why countries like Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan, where the upper reaches of the rivers are located and which have comparatively little agricultural land, have been calling the allocation agreement into question for some time. They want to use the water mainly to produce electricity via reservoirs and hydropower plants.

The problems are greatest in the summer months, during the irrigation period. The fluctuation can be enormous as it depends on the electricity production at the upstream reservoirs. The quantities of water vary by several cubic metres per second depending on the time of day. Uncertainties of this kind cause huge problems for farmers and ecosystems. So, it's less about the total volume of water and more about the timing of how it's shared. The inexact forecasting of water availability also presents a major challenge.

The national hydrometeorological offices that are responsible for the measurements tell us that it's all down to the measuring equipment. But the World Bank and other development agencies have invested a great deal of money in measurement infrastructure in recent years. We had high hopes that this would improve the quality of the forecasts, but this hasn't happened so far. Another important factor is that regional water organisations like ours have open access to national water data. The commercialisation of national hydrological data called for by development partners makes that more difficult.

Despite everything, we're still able to access a lot of data through global networks and our partners in individual countries. And we're making more and more use of satellites – to monitor the shrinking of the Aral Sea, for example. But this data also needs to be verified by means of measurements on the ground, which sadly isn't always possible.

Naturally, I hope so. But, unfortunately, we often see – and not just in Central Asia – that change only begins when the crisis is already upon is. Following the demise of the Soviet Union, the water ministries joined forces to form the Interstate Commission. There were signs of a certain rapprochement, even in years with extreme water shortages. Not, however, based on forecasts.